May 29, 2023, will make it eight conservative years that the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) has been out of power at the centre. The current election cycle will be the second attempt by the party to reclaim power after losing to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015. The PDP’s first comeback attempt in 2019 was vehemently resisted by the APC, which fielded its pioneer incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari. Given a number of factors at play in the 2019 poll, Buhari and his APC were able to rout the PDP and its presidential candidate in that election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. There are four leading candidates in tomorrow’s presidential contest, presumably.

In the race are Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Mr Peter Obi is flying the flag of the Labour Party (LP) while Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is running on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). A thoroughly fractured PDP now stands on shakier ground than it did in the 2019 poll. The party’s erstwhile strongholds in the Southeast and Southsouth geopolitical zones have now been invaded by LP’s Obi.

Governors Hope Uzodinma and Dave Umahi of Imo and Ebonyi will stand the ground for the APC for whatever their effort may be worth. Governors Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) have been at daggers drawn with Atiku over the PDP ticket. They have aligned with Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike in the group of G-5 working against Atiku. In Anambra, the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) holds sway. But it is doubtful if Governor Chukwuma Soludo can sway Anambra voters against LP’s Obi.

A more challenging scenario will play out in Rivers State where the leader of the G-5, Wike, holds court. Wike is leaving no stone unturned to constrict the political scape for his party’s presidential candidate. Also in Southsouth, Governor Benedict Ayade of Cross River, who dumped the PDP for the APC some two years ago, is working for his new party. It’s not the best of times for the PDP chapter in Cross River. A few of its leading lights, including former Governor Donald Duke, have taken sides with forces opposed to Atiku’s candidature and they are working hard against his interest.

Edo, another Southsouth state in the PDP clan, will be a battleground for the three leading parties in tomorrow’s election. Governor Godwin Obaseki, last week, stirred the hornets’ nest by joining the Federal Government in the suit filed by some APC governors at the Supreme Court challenging the vexatious currency swap policy. It was an election-time miscalculation on the part of the Edo governor as the Edo people took to the streets in protest. In Bayelsa State, Governor Duoye Diri and his PDP gained Bayelsa in the 2019 election courtesy of the indiscretion of the APC deputy governorship candidate.

Also, the camp of former President Goodluck Jonathan is perceived not to be chummy with PDP’s Atiku as a result of old wounds inflicted on him during the 2015 election. Dr Jonathan has shown this through his actions, inactions and body language in the last few months. There is nothing to indicate that anything has changed between then and now. So Bayelsa votes will be split mainly between the PDP and the APC, with the LP picking the remnant. The bulk of the votes in Delta will go to the PDP with their son, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa being on the party’s joint presidential ticket with Atiku. The same may be the case in Akwa Ibom where the governor, Udom Emmanuel, is the chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council.

Atiku’s chances in the Southwest appear quite slim with Tinubu in the race. Four of the six states in the zone are controlled by the APC. Oyo, one of the two PDP states in the zone is going with the APC candidate as Governor Seyi Makinde is staying loyal to his G-5 mandate to ditch Atiku. The various APC camps in Osun have closed ranks to ensure Tinubu’s victory in the state.

The LP candidate has infiltrated two states, Benue and Plateau in the North-Central zone. Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue has publicly declared support for Obi in line with the objective of his compatriots in the G-5 camp. Benue will be a battleground for the APC, PDP and LP on Saturday. The remaining four states in the zone -Niger, Kogi, Kwara and Nasarawa will certainly go for the APC candidate with their governors leading the battle.

Atiku is expected to have a brilliant outing in his home state of Adamawa, Northeast Nigeria where there is also an incumbent PDP governor. He will also cover some ground in Bauchi and Taraba where the PDP also has two sitting governors on the ground. However, the main opposition party will face an uphill task in the remaining three Northeastern states – Borno, Yobe and Gombe which are in the firm grip of the APC.

Can PDP bounce back?

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